| The midterm elections, the next OPEC+ meeting and Xi Jinping’s trip to Riyadh will seal the fate of an 80-year partnership. The US and Saudi Arabia have reached one of the lowest ebbs in their 80-year partnership. Three upcoming events will be key to determining whether this is just another of the periodic spats that have punctuated the relationship, or if Washington and Riyadh are developing irreconcilable differences. The dispute was triggered by an Oct. 5 decision by the Saudi-led OPEC+ group, which includes Russia, to lower production and prevent the continued fall in the price of oil. President Joe Biden’s administration regarded this as the breach of a private understanding with de facto Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The Saudis, however, say they had agreed to prevent the price from rising too high for the West, but not to keep it from falling unacceptably low for their needs. This disagreement builds on 15 years of gradually accumulated mutual mistrust. Fortunately, cooler heads seem to be prevailing. While the White House promised outraged congressional Democrats it would “reassess” relations and impose “consequences” on Saudi Arabia, no major or irreversible actions have been taken. A meeting of the US-Gulf Arab working group on Iran has been postponed, and no Biden administration officials attended last week’s Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh (although many leading US financial companies were represented at the highest levels). So far, that’s about it. For its part, Saudi Arabia has moved to rebut criticisms that it was siding with Russia against Ukraine: voting at the United Nations to condemn Moscow’s annexation of Ukrainian territories, and providing $400 million in humanitarian assistance to Kyiv. Yet nothing significant has yet been done to repair the damage, either. There are three inflection points on the horizon: US midterm elections on Nov. 8; the next OPEC+ meeting, on Dec. 4; and an anticipated visit to Riyadh by Chinese leader Xi Jinping. American annoyance has been widespread and bipartisan, but congressional Democrats are particularly infuriated, worried that voters will punish them for inflation caused in part by high energy prices. In the days leading up to the production cut, the Biden administration tried to persuade Saudi leaders to at least wait on a month — until after the midterms — but failed. If Democrats lose control of Congress, the hunt for culprits will ensue. It’s nonsensical to think Saudi Arabia would base a crucial economic strategic decision on US domestic politics. It was far more about keeping the nation on course for its long-term economic transformation away from fossil-fuel dependence. Yet if the Democrats are trounced, it may be much harder for the Biden administration to hold off on a major reprisal before the next OPEC+ meeting, potentially setting off a vicious cycle. That meeting presents an important opportunity to reset relations. On Dec. 5, seaborne imports of Russian crude oil to Europe will end, potentially creating an energy crisis as sinking temperatures mark the beginning of a long, cold winter. This presents a double opportunity for Riyadh. It can take care to coordinate sufficiently with Washington to begin to reverse the impact of the perceived betrayal in October, so that there are no unpleasant surprises. By helping to offset the cutoff of Russian crude by increasing their own production, or that of OPEC+, it can present itself as coming to the aid of the Europeans while making it clear that it is not in any sense siding with Russia against Ukraine. But there is also a double danger. It’s reasonable to interpret the current dispute as resulting from mutual misunderstandings, but that won’t be possible in December. Everything is now in the open, and there will be no excuse for a failure to or anticipate consequences. Moreover, while Saudi leaders have expressed shock at the accusation of betrayal, if they do nothing to help in December it will be much harder for them to convince anyone in the West that they aren’t effectively siding with Moscow. The final major challenge is a long-awaited visit by Xi to Saudi Arabia, likely to occur before year’s end, which will inevitably raise hackles in Washington. He’s likely to get the red-carpet treatment afforded former President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, in contrast to the low-key reception Biden received in his trip to Jeddah earlier this year. Though Biden wanted the simple reception he got, Republicans, and possibly Democrats, are sure to highlight the distinction. More dangerous are the deliverables invariably associated with such a high-level state visit. Last week China and Saudi Arabia agreed to move forward with an agreement to cooperate on nuclear energy. Anything that smacks of a strategic or military gain for Beijing in the Gulf region will not sit well in Washington. Forewarned is forearmed. These three significant hurdles need careful handling, and that means dialogue and coordination to avoid any further major misunderstandings between Riyadh and Washington. Otherwise, what thus far has been an avoidable argument could begin to turn into a mutually damaging rupture. |