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Over the past week the presidential campaign of Donald Trump imploded, seriously calling into question the future of the Republican Party. As he sinks ever further behind Hillary Clinton both nationally and in key battleground states, Mr Trump is becoming increasingly shameless, aggressive and, apparently, unhinged.
For all the talk of a campaign “reset,” he has demonstrated in both word and deed that he isn’t interested in any moderation. At times he insisted that he is on the path to victory. At other moments, though, he seemed to acknowledge he may well lose, and appeared remarkably comfortable with the prospect of a “nice long vacation” instead.
Last week Mr Trump intensified his already outrageous rhetoric, apparently calling on gun owners to assassinate either Mrs Clinton or any judges she might appoint. (He later absurdly claimed he was just urging political mobilisation).
He ridiculously claimed that president Barack Obama and Mrs Clinton founded ISIL. He rebuked a radio host who tried to assist him by saying he must mean they created the political environment in which the terrorist group emerged. No, Mr Trump insisted, Mr Obama literally founded ISIL. He later claimed he was just kidding, but no one can explain what the joke is supposed to be and no one is laughing.
And, with staggering irresponsibility, he keeps insisting the election will be rigged against him.
Although the election isn’t until November and the political landscape can change overnight, Mr Trump’s candidacy really does seem doomed. One noted Republican said only a video of Mrs Clinton drowning puppies while surrounded by terrorists chanting “death to America” could give him a fighting chance. Another wrote that he would have been much better off if he had done nothing since his convention, and, although he won’t, if he just did and said nothing for a week he might take the lead.
The American political conversation is now focused on why Mr Trump is behaving in such a patently self-destructive manner. It not only defies conventional wisdom, it defies rationality.
Theories abound. The notion, which I have publicly embraced since last autumn, that Mr Trump has serious emotional or mental issues has recently gained currency among both Republicans and Democrats. But while he appears to have a textbook case of narcissistic personality disorder, this explanation is insufficient and dangerous.
Most victims of mental illness or personality disorders don’t promote violence or spread misogyny, bigotry and racism. So, this doesn’t explain Mr Trump’s most alarming behaviour and might stigmatise decent people with mental illnesses. Yet emotional instability does help explain his apparent lack of self-control, so it can’t be completely ignored either.
Some, including people who know him well, speculate that Mr Trump never expected to get this far, and, consciously or not, understands he is unsuited and ill-prepared for the presidency, and doesn’t actually want to win.
Others suggest he is indeed trying to win, and is genuinely convinced that the aggressive and outlandish outbursts that won him the nomination can also secure him the White House.
Another explanation is that he really doesn’t care whether he wins but is simply revelling in the publicity, fun and endless attention. In this view, the Trump campaign is just a giant ego trip without any actual political agenda.
Finally, some argue that Mr Trump lacks the political skill and imagination to do anything differently. Understanding that he is therefore likely to lose, he’s deliberately whipping his followers into a frenzy of righteous rage in preparation for an angry, and perhaps violent, response to a defeat in November. The charitable version of this analysis is that he’s building a “movement” far beyond the election or even the Republican Party. The uncharitable one holds that he’s consciously and cynically laying the groundwork for civil unrest.
Facing potential Trump-induced congressional defeats, on top of probably losing the presidency, Republican leaders are sinking into a morass for which they are largely responsible. While the New York Daily News and others have demanded the party dump him as their candidate, there’s no mechanism to do that. Over 70 senior Republicans signed a letter urging Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus to “suspend” funding for the Trump campaign and focus on congressional races instead. But the hapless Mr Priebus whined that this would be premature.
Despite a steady drip of high-level Republican defectors denouncing Mr Trump, with many also endorsing Mrs Clinton, most elected Republicans still officially back him. They typically cite concerns over Supreme Court appointments, although even conservative commentators such as George Will have noted it’s ridiculous to claim to be defending the constitution by supporting someone who obviously neither knows nor cares anything about it.
Although it’s only August, it really does seem that the Trump campaign will require an extraordinary and imponderable intervention – for example an “October surprise” release of particularly damning hacked Clinton emails – to regain any serious prospect of victory. The remaining questions, then, are how much damage will the Republican Party and its congressional candidates suffer, and how can it rebuild itself after this unprecedented, but entirely self-inflicted, calamity.