Normalization of relations is key to the Emirati view of regional security and its own economic future.
The agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates to normalize relations didn’t come out of the clear blue sky: since the mid-1990s, many Gulf Arab countries have been slowly and quietly building their relationships with Israel, without breaking the long-standing taboo against formal recognition without any significant progress on Palestinian rights. The UAE’s decision to take the plunge reflects a willingness to cross that line in pursuit of the ambitious role it has set for itself in the Middle East.
Despite its small size, the UAE aspires to be one of the region’s leaders, promoting an Emirati vision for the social, political and economic future in the Arab world. This view emphasizes religious tolerance, ethnic diversity, social and cultural openness, and confident Arab cultural and economic engagement with the outside world. But it has little use for democracy, instead championing a strict security state that closely regulates political speech and activity.
Above all, the Emirati doctrine rejects the injection of religion into politics, and vice-versa. This puts the UAE on a collision course not only with Shiite-Islamist Iran, but also with Turkey and its Sunni-Islamist alliance, including Qatar, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Tripoli-based government of Libya.
The UAE viewed the “Arab Spring” uprisings as an open doorway to Islamist rule in Arab republics and strongly supported the 2013 ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt by the military under General Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi. The Emiratis were never involved in the Syrian war because opposition groups were too Islamist for their liking. In Libya, Tunisia, Sudan and the horn of Africa, the UAE has sought to extend its influence and curtail that of Islamists.
A partnership with Israel fits into the Emirati doctrine. For Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and main author of the doctrine, Iran represents the greatest danger to the region, a view he shares with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Not only are the glittering cities of the UAE sitting ducks for Iranian missiles, the Islamic Republic’s ability (and frequent threats) to choke off the Straits of Hormuz threatens the economies of all the Gulf Arab states.
Historically, the Emiratis relied on the U.S. for protection. But the UAE is no longer confident of Washington’s willingness to help. President Barack Obama’s eagerness to make a nuclear deal with Iran dismayed MBZ, as the prince is known. And although he has cultivated a good relationship with the Trump administration, he knows not to trust the current occupant of the White House.
So, the UAE has taken the lead among Gulf Arab countries in actively diversifying its security relationships, including a strategic partnership with Russia that includes stronger economic ties and a quiet alliance, along with Egypt, in tactical battlefields such as Libya. But the understanding with Russia is of limited use against the Iranian threat: Tehran is building an ever-closer relationship to Moscow. On the other hand, the Islamic Republic is implacably hostile to Israel, which is attacking its proxies in Syria and Lebanon.
The U.S. may be leading the anti-Iranian coalition, but from the Emirati point of view, it is Israel that’s doing most of the kinetic heavy lifting. So, normalization with Israel is crucial to the UAE’s security calculations, for itself and its neighborhood. The clandestine Israeli-Emirati security relationship can now be strengthened in the open. Israeli defense manufacturers expect orders worth billions of dollars from the UAE in the coming months.
American manufacturers, too: The Emiratis will hope to get some exemptions from U.S. defense-export restrictions that ensure Israel has what is known as a “qualitative military edge” over Arab states. More generally, normalization of relations with Israel has already greatly improved the UAE’s standing in Washington, not only with the Trump administration but also with Democratic leaders.
The agreement with Israel will also strengthen the UAE against the Turkish threat, real and perceived, to its interests. This will likely play out in Libya, where the Emiratis are backing the rebel commander Khalifa Haftar against the Tripoli government. There have already been unconfirmed reports of Israeli-made military equipment finding its way into rebel hands. More will undoubtedly follow.
Finally, a deeper relationship with Israel will serve the UAE’s vision of its economic future as a regional hub for science and technology. It has already acted on this ambition, becoming the first Arab country with a major nuclear power program and it recently launched the region’s first interplanetary venture, a mission to Mars. Emirati firms can now openly pursue partnerships with Israeli tech companies. Israel’s Science and Technology Minister Izhar Shay is looking forward to investments from the UAE.