An outbreak in the strip would require Israel, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority to come to terms.
Perhaps it was too much to hope that the closure of Gaza would help protect it from the spread of the coronavirus. Last week, officials announced that two Gaza residents who had recently returned from Pakistan had tested, and that they had infected seven others.
It’s hard to think of anywhere else in the world where this virus could take a greater toll, per capita, than the strip. Over 1.85 million Palestinians are crammed into a mere 141 square miles, a population density similar to many megacities. Most are refugees or their descendants. Living conditions have been poor since 1948, but deteriorated significantly after the Hamas takeover of the territory in 2007, the war with Israel in 2008, and the subsequent blockade by Israel and Egypt.
In 2018, the UN said the Gaza healthcare system was on the brink of collapse due to a combination of underdevelopment, damage by Israeli attacks and the myriad negative consequences of the closure of the territory for more than a decade.
Palestinians in Gaza are already highly susceptible to illnesses because of widespread unemployment and poverty, food insecurity, lack of adequate potable water, the inability to treat sewage and frequent power outages. Gaza is one of the worst places imaginable to get a serious disease, with a mere 70 ICU beds available. If the coronavirus spreads there, the healthcare system lacks the necessary tools, including tests, personal protective equipment and ventilators.
Gaza residents can ask for Israel’s permission to go to the West Bank for treatment, but that’s usually denied; besides, the West Bank may be overburdened as well. It’s hard to imagine many Palestinians from Gaza being allowed access treatment in Israeli hospitals.
Egypt, too, is unlikely to be able or willing to help much. The government in Cairo already regards the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza as a serious potential threat to its security. Egypt would like a solution to address Gazans’ basic human needs without unduly strengthening Hamas, which much of the world considers a terrorist organization.
Israel, too, has been cognizant of the threat that intolerable living conditions in Gaza could pose to its security. International and Arab donors have been willing to finance aid and reconstruction.
But the Palestinian Authority has shied away from any agreement to return it to nominal power in Gaza and oversee a wide-ranging humanitarian program unless Hamas disarms. PA President Mahmoud Abbas says he’s not willing to tolerate a replica of Hezbollah in Lebanon where the government has all the responsibility but Hezbollah, because of its Iran-backed militia, welds all the power.
The interim and highly imperfect solution has been for Israel to allow Hamas’ patron, Qatar, to dispatch cash to Gaza on a quarterly basis,. to pay public employees and keep most people fed. But that’s not going to do much to combat a coronavirus epidemic.
Hamas is clearly alarmed. It recently called off planned mass protests for March 30, and has quarantined 1,700 Gazans. It is also pleading for international aid and support. The UN Special Coordinator Nickolay Mladenov has expressed specific concern about Gaza and the coronavirus, but no specific measures or funding have been announced.
A major outbreak could force all parties to reconsider the status quo of semi-permanent closure in Gaza. Israel and Egypt might see their worst fears about instability and chaos on their borders realized. Hamas would be overwhelmed, and could even be overthrown. And the PA may face overwhelming pressure from its own public to act.
Abbas will be the key, since a Palestinian alternative to Hamas is essential to oversee any assistance. All other parties will have to find a way of pressuring him to say yes to a risky agreement with Hamas, while making sure that he has the financial, diplomatic and political backing he needs to make it work and prevent Hamas from emerging the big winners.
Relations between the PA and Israel have hardly ever been worse, particularly given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposals—apparently endorsed by President Donald Trump—for more Israeli annexation in the West Bank. Yet the coronavirus has been enough of a common threat to prompt unprecedented cooperation, to try to contain the spread of the virus on both sides of this bitter divide.
In their own self-interest and to prevent a humanitarian calamity, all parties—including Hamas, the PA, Israel, Egypt and international donors—may yet be forced by the pandemic to finally develop a new arrangement for Palestinians in Gaza.